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《大行報告》匯豐研究下調水泥及鋼鐵股目標價 首選海螺水泥(00914.HK)及馬鋼(00323.HK)
匯豐研究預計,被壓抑的建築材料需求將在明年第一季因流動性改善而釋放,但長期前景仍然模糊,現以中下行週期倍數以評估水泥及鋼鐵股價。該行全線下調建材股目標價,認爲海螺水泥(00914.HK)及馬鋼(00323.HK)在行內有最大獲利空間,評級同爲「買入」,目標價分別由65元下調至50元,及由6.3元下調至4元。 匯豐研究預期,明年與房地產或基礎設施相關的需求將下降約2.5%,並繼續在2023年下降,相對於鋼鐵企業,水泥企業對此更敏感,但認爲水泥企業之間的供給側協調和因政府減排要求的而導致的鋼鐵減產,在一定程度上幫助緩解需求下降。 匯豐研究指,假設限電措施將在冬季完結,預計被壓抑的建築需求將在明年初釋放,再加上最近人行下調存款準備金率和社會融資復甦,可能會導致建築活動在明年初反彈。由於目前水泥和鋼鐵企業的毛利高於去年,正常化的銷量可能會支持盈利出乎意料上升。
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