大和:內房股未來仍存不確定性 看好龍湖潤地旭輝
大和發研報指,有報道指預計未來數月內地房地產行業的信貸將進一步放寬,不過,該行認為,未來仍存在不確定性,發展商或面臨更多流動性問題,房地產市場情緒仍然疲弱。該行維持行業“中性”評級,並看好防守性較強及財務穩健的發展商,予龍湖集團(0960.HK)、華潤置地(1109.HK)、及旭輝控股(0884.HK)“買入”評級。
大和相信,人行在本月7日降準0.5個百分點,將有助於緩解房地產行業的信貸狀況,相信有關寬鬆信貸狀況的報吿有利於中國發展商的近期股價,特別是beta較高和財務狀況較弱的發展商。該行又認為,隨着新一年開始,有進一步放鬆的可能性。
雖然大和認為行業最糟糕的時期已經過去,但仍未走出困境,更多發展商可能會出現流動性問題,並非所有發展商都會從寬鬆的信貸中受惠。此外,由於房產税擴展至更多城市的不確定性以及持續的價格折扣,發展商在購房者的觀望情緒中仍然面臨着疲弱的房地產市場情緒。該行預計所覆蓋的大部分內房股將無法實現今年的銷售目標。表列大和對部分內房股最新評級及目標價:

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