《大行報告》大摩料內房股明年迎來拐點 行業首選華潤置地、龍湖及融創等
摩根士丹利發表報告,預計內地將有更多逆週期措施出臺,支持房地產市場逐步恢復,並在明年迎來拐點,明年下半年重拾增長。該行預測明年全國銷售額下跌2.5%,新開工率料跌5%,中國房地產投資(REI)增長2.5%,高於市場預期。內房股首選華潤置地(01109.HK)、龍湖集團(00960.HK)和融創中國(01918.HK)。
報告指出,到目前爲止,已經看到一些政策和信貸的放鬆,如放寬抵押貸款和開發貸款的審批,放寬城市層面的銷售限制等,預計會有更多的逆週期措施出臺,以防止房地產行業的下行,料試行的房產稅將比市場預期更溫和。
大摩料,大多數內房開發商有望在明年底前達到人行要求的「三條紅線」,從而降低行業的槓桿率和風險。至於資產負債表穩健、融資能力強、執行力強的開發商,料市場份額將擴大,尤其是國企。
報告上調雅居樂(03383.HK)、中國奧園(03883.HK)、世茂集團(00813.HK)投資評級由「減持」升至「與大市同步」,另上調合景泰富(01813.HK)評級由「與大市同步」升至「增持」。該行調整內房股目標價,詳見另表。
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