分析師：做空ARK！
儘管表面上看，近期市場對Omicron變種的擔憂推動了股市的震盪，但實際上市場在上週就已經出現了異常。據瞭解，標普500指數11月整體保持相對穩定，但成長型股票、MEME股以及對衝基金青睞的其他公司的股價卻出現了下跌。
圖1
其中，從11月1日至今，Peloton(PTON.US)跌幅已達51%，Roku(ROKU.US)跌幅也達46%，Draftkings(DKNG.US)、Robinhood(HOOD.US)、Zoom(ZM.US)跌幅超30%，相比之下，標普500指數僅跌7%。
對此，高盛策略師David Kostin的觀點是，儘管這些高增長、低利潤企業中有許多前景誘人，但其目前的估值依賴於長期未來現金流，因此這些企業尤其容易受到利率上升或營收不及預期風險的影響。
此外，Kostin還指出，目前股票的平均做空比例處於2000年科技泡沫以來的最低水平，從2020年初佔市值的2.2%降至目前的1.5%。這意味着當市場出現回調時，賣出就會變得非常擁擠。
爲了理解當所有人都試圖同時離開市場時會發生什麼，看看大摩的一個指數是很有幫助的，該指數根據對衝基金提交的13-F數據，列出了前50名最擁擠的股票。
圖2
這一籃子股票創下了與標普500指數相比的歷史最差表現。
市場人士認爲，美聯儲加快緊縮步伐、科技公司業績不及預期，以及對衝基金希望在年底前獲利了結，都是導致股市出現極端走勢的原因。儘管如此，缺乏明顯的單一催化劑還是讓人想起了2007年8月的令人不安的記憶。據悉，當時華爾街受到了計算機驅動的投資模式短暫崩盤的衝擊，這場危機後來被稱爲“量化浩劫(Quant Quake)”。
但也有人在此次混亂中發現了機會，Tallbacken Capital Advisors LLC分析師Michael Purves建議投資者使用最擁擠的股票來對衝市場波動加劇的風險。該分析師建議做空Cathie Wood的旗艦基金ARK Innovation，因爲這隻基金是散戶投資者喜愛的熱門股票的代表，並且自11月1日以來已下跌19%。
Purves表示：“在股市波動加劇的形勢下，我們認爲最佳風險/回報是建立在估值更多地取決於故事而不是數字的市場。”
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