《大行報告》瑞銀料內房債務違約可控 未來數月將有放鬆政策
瑞銀發表研究報告指,恆大(03333.HK)日前正式宣布已收到履行2.6億美元離岸擔保義務的通知,表示不確定是否擁有充足資金繼續履行財務責任,同時廣東省政府表示同意向恆大地產派出工作小組,督促解決企業風險處置工作。該行認為,市場對恆大的資產負債表狀況擔憂數月,對當局的行動不感意外,認為有關部門的態度表明恆大在債務違約方面並非「規模大到不能倒下」,釋除市場部分疑慮。
瑞銀表示,可能還需要一段時間才可知道恆大的重組計劃,但相信重組似乎已開始,一如預期政府首要任務是確保房地產項目交付,保障買家、供應商、債權人等各方權益,確保社會穩定,人民銀行、中國銀保監會及中證監亦迅速向市場「派定心丸」,指恆大風險為個別事件,其債務問題不會影響中國銀行業和保險業的正常運行,再一次顯示出政府希望房地產行業平穩健康發展的立場。
該行相信系統性風險仍受到控制,考慮到房地產行業對中國宏觀經濟及金融穩定至關重要,若不放鬆政策,明年房地產銷售和項目開工可能會下降20%,導致經濟硬著陸,因此相信當局未來幾個月將放鬆房地產政策,估計房地產債務違約的直接影響屬可控。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.