《大行報告》花旗引述美團(03690.HK)指新工傷保險計劃明年初試點及全國推行需兩年
花旗發表報告表示,本週三(1日)與美團(03690.HK)投資者關係團隊進行投資者會議,對其會員的吸引力和長期效益目標、騎手社會福利的實施時間表、「美團優選」的質量增長,以及其他新投資支出等進行了解。雖然疫情流行、極端天氣條件和宏觀環境疲軟,可能會影響美團今年第四季度和2022年初的需求和銷量增長,但料其整體用戶需求和運營保持彈性,該行對美團升級後的「零售+科技」戰略保持樂觀態度,重申對美團「買入」評級及目標價爲342元。
得益於有效的用戶轉化及宣傳補貼,美團今年第三季外賣業務會員總數達6,000萬戶,而外賣會員的交易頻率爲一般用戶的3倍以上,會員的平均客單價(AOV,Average Order Value)更高及支出品類更多元化。雖然內地宏觀經濟短期存挑戰,但美團管理層仍然有信心通過以下方式實現其到2025年相關每筆利潤中期目標達1元人民幣,包括降低補貼率;提升高利潤的廣告收入;長途配送、夜宵等特定場景將收取更高的服務費。管理層認爲,通過優化現有配送網絡,在特定城市、特定場景探索自主技術,可以抵銷騎手福利和保險成本逐漸上升的影響因素。
就涉及社會福利的實施時間表方面,美團管理層預計新的工傷保險計劃將於明年初在內地6-10個省份開始試點,預計在所有省份全面實施需要大約兩年時間,其影響可能是全面執行後每單交易0.05元人民幣。至於社保福利,管理層認爲各地方政府全面落實可能需要更長的時間,而且很可能只提供給全職員工。根據目前情況,預計騎手成本相當每筆交易約0.5元人民幣。
至於新投資方面,美團管理層指因於需進一步提升消費者份額,管理層預計「美團雜貨」和「美團閃購」零售業務虧損或會增加,但管理層還看到了平均客單價擴張的巨大潛力,以及廣告收入的增加,以改善 「美團閃購」按需交付服務的長期利潤率。
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