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財新王(吉吉):11月服務業需求增速放緩兼就業惡化 整體通脹壓力猶存
阿思達克 12-03 09:52
11月財新中國通用服務業經營活動指數(服務業PMI)錄得52.1,按月回落1.7個百分點,亦低於市場預期的53;服務業經營活動連續第三個月保持增長,但增速輕微,爲三個月來最低。 從財新中國服務業PMI各分項指數看,新訂單指數仍處於擴張區間,但增速降至三個月來最低。外需增長較爲疲弱,11月服務業新接出口業務量連續第二個月增長,但增速與10月接近,同屬微增。 雖然經營活動受疫情阻撓、新訂單增速回落,但服務業企業對未來一年的前景仍然保持樂觀,11月服務業經營預期指數較10月小幅提升。服務業企業信心強勁,致力擴張產能,用工數量由此進一步增加。 11月,服務業投入價格和收費價格走勢出現背離。受用工、原料和能源均加價的影響,服務業投入價格連續17個月保持上漲,11月漲幅顯着,創六月以來最高。企業成本壓力傳導至下遊,11月服務業收費價格雖然連續第三個月上漲,但漲幅出現回落。 財新智庫高級經濟學家王(吉吉)表示,11月製造業景氣度基本維持平穩,服務業擴張速度略有放緩,經濟下行壓力增加,通脹壓力部分緩解。10月下旬至11月上中旬,多省市出現新發疫情,對經濟造成不利影響,需求側受影響更大。 供給側方面,電力供應短缺得到緩解後,製造業生產開始恢復,但幅度有限,基礎尚不牢固。大宗商品保供穩價措施大幅緩解了製造業企業成本壓力,對服務業企業降成本成效有限,整體通脹壓力猶存。 政策層面,王(吉吉)認爲中小企業紓困仍是重點,就業有所惡化,居民收入增幅有限,消費品購買力薄弱,這些問題都應給予足夠重視。部份原材料價格依然位於高位,企業還面臨較大成本壓力,通脹問題尚不可掉以輕心。(ta/da) ~
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