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《大行報告》花旗下調中國明年GDP增長預測至4.7% 料首季降準50個基點及次季減息25個基點
阿思達克 12-02 15:46
花旗發表報告,下調中國明年GDP增長預測至4.7%,料首季降準50個基點及次季減息25個基點。 報告指,明年中國PPI和CPI的差距將大幅縮小,預計PPI通脹率將從今年的7.7%下降到明年的3.4%,而CPI通脹率將從0.8%追上至2%。 花旗認爲,中國目前主要挑戰是房地產下滑對總需求造成巨大壓力。開發商和購房者的情緒仍然非常疲軟,房地產融資也有待改善。在10月份房地產投資和銷售大幅下降之後,或將持續低迷一段時間。 該行料,明年中國房地產投資增長爲0%,比之前預期的2%更加謹慎,也比2015年記錄的1%的歷史低點慢。如果政府未有採取果斷行動,房地產投資可能會下降3%,在悲觀的情況下,經濟增長只能達到3%左右。
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