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《大行報告》摩通看好中資股明年前景 料新能源汽車及可再生能源等可現「明日之星」
摩根大通發表中國資本市場明年展望報告,指看好中國股市前景,指中資股今年以來表現跑輸新興市場及亞太地區市場,指MSCI中國指數今年以來累跌19%,其中在2月17日高位至10月6日低位一度累挫33%,市場目前關注變種病毒Omicron影響,或會令指數再下試低位。 該行,但隨着冬季過去,明年2月迎來北京冬奧,隨着政策能見度的提高和信貸勢頭的溫和改善,料市場情緒應該會有所改善。若指中資股在2021年是制定新規的一年,料2022年就是實施新規的一年。對於2022年展望,摩通維持的MSCI中國指數基本情景目標爲116,並在滬深300指數予基本情景目標5,950點。 摩通指,市場普遍估計中資股收入增長,將從2020年按年增長3%,至2021年及2022年增長加快至各24%及13%,料淨利潤率將從2020年的5.9%,至2021年提升至6.7%,至2022年進一步升至7.3%,指更佳的定價能力,使其表現優於整體經濟。 該行指,中國正進行對各行業的結構性改革,對行業產生不同的影響,建議避開「舊英雄」(如內房股),爲了公平競爭和公共利益,當局對「互聯網+」和新經濟概念股進行監管,以培養出「明日之星」(new heroes)(如新能源汽車、可再生能源、先進製造、科技及數字化等),以實現經濟新的增長引擎。總而言之,中央似乎正在藉監日本的經驗教訓,在此過程中,該行預計行業將繼續整合,在更新的模型組合中,該行建議「增持」工業、資訊科技、可再生能源和非必需消費品;對能源和原材料持「中性」取態,以及建議「減持」日常消費、通訊服務和醫療保健。
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