《即日市評》MSCI「換馬」港股成交逾二千億 內需及內房股弱
市場憂慮Omicron變種病毒衝擊全球經濟,港股今日持續向下。Moderna行政總裁指現有疫苗或不足以應對Omicron變種病毒,警告藥廠需要數月時間才能大規模生產針對特定變種病毒的疫苗;執筆之時美國十年期國債孳息率跌至1.438釐,美匯指數跌至95.82,美股道指期貨最新跌506點或1.46%,納指期貨最新跌0.5%。中國11月官方製造業PMI升至50.1(市場原預期49.7),而國家衛健委指變異毒株擴散,中國外防輸入壓力持續加大,上證綜指全日反覆升1點或0.03%收3,563點、深證成指跌0.1%,內地創業板指數跌0.2%,滬深兩市成交額共1.22萬億人民幣。
恆指今早低開69點,初段曾倒升36點,其後再度下跌,午後跌幅曾擴大至676點見23,175點,尾市跌幅收窄,全日跌376點或1.58%,收23,475點,連跌三日(累跌1,264點或5.1%);國指全日跌129點或1.53%,收8,368點;恆生科技指數跌70點或1.16%,收6,028點。MSCI指數半年檢變動於收市後生效,大市全日成交總額按日升55%至2,238.48億元,滬、深港通南下交易分別淨流入19.26億及6.9億元人民幣。
恆指11月累跌1,901點或7.5%、國指11月累跌593點或6.6%及恆生科指11月累跌347點或5.4%。內地10月PPI按年升13.5%創逾26年來新高,市場擔心企業成本,而中美元首月中首完成舉行視頻會晤,就雙方共同關心的問題交換意見,但本月下旬南非出現全新新冠變種病毒Omicron,令市場憂慮重燃。
【憂變種疫情 內需賭股弱】
內需股普遍向下,萬洲(00288.HK)、蒙牛(02319.HK)及康師傅(00322.HK)今日跌4.1%至4.8%;濠賭股繼續受壓,金沙中國(01928.HK)及美高梅中國(02282.HK)各跌4.1%及5%。高盛發表報告指出,注意到中國近來加強對非法網絡賭博網站的立場,並收緊對中介活動的監管,而基於增加審查的情況,該行認爲賭場運營商可能會更傾向於縮減中介貴賓廳業務敞口,將重點進一步投放在高端中場業務。
高盛對澳門6家賭場營運商2022及2023財年的EBITDA預測下調2%至20%,目標價下調3%至13%。隨着最近有關中介人的消息,加上新冠變種病毒Omicron肆虐,該行預計澳門博彩股在短期內波動性會加劇。
【跌股千二隻 內房股受壓】
港股今日市寬續弱,主板股票的升跌比率爲14比28(上日爲14比27),下跌股份1,204只(跌幅2.8%);恆指成份股今日6只股份上升,下跌股份54只,升跌比率爲10比90(上日爲28比62);大市今日錄沽空301.98億元,佔可沽空股份成交1,973.7億元的15.3%(上日18.847%)。
內房股受壓,華潤置地(01109.HK)股價挫5.4%收32.45元,龍湖(00960.HK)股價走低4.1%。裏昂發表報告指,內銀審批內房股貸款決策之時,除了傳統的基本面因素外,更會受到內房發展商的負面消息,及離岸市場債券價格變動的影響,令有更多負面消息的發展商(無論是否屬實)面臨短期流動性及債券價格走低問題。
裏昂表示,看到內地部分城市如成都的房地產政策有微調,但料未能有助解決大部分民營發展商的短期流動性問題,預期未來一至兩個月內地發展商或有更多債務違約情況出現,於今年底前估計市場情緒會持續低迷。裏昂預期,內地房地產的預售持續下降,將進一步影響發展商現金流,從而影響股份表現。
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