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天風醫藥:胰島素國家集採完成,國產替代有望加速

本文來自:一棵大松樹,作者:楊松

事件:

2021年11月26日,第六批國家組織藥品集中帶量採購(胰島素專項)在上海完成開標,本次胰島素帶量採購納入二代、三代胰島素,分速效、基礎、預混各三組。以 3ml:300 單位(筆芯)為代表品估算,整體報量為 2.14 億支,其中二代胰島素 9000 萬支(預混人胰島素為 7870 萬支),三代胰島素 1.24 億支(基礎胰島素為 3688 萬支)。

整體降幅符合市場預期,門冬胰島素和甘精胰島素降幅略超預期

①中選企業數為11家,對應品種數量為42個(國產28個,進口14個),對應報量1.92億支,整體相對於限價的降幅為49%,國產品種平均降幅51%,進口品種平均降幅45%,最高降幅為74%,有13個品種降幅為40%(依據中選規則2可確保中選的降幅);

②中選金額方面,如不考慮分組,以採購需求量計算對應金額為76億元,如考慮分組,預計有17個品種分到A組(基礎量為首年採購需求量的85-100%),15個品種分到B組(基礎量為首年採購需求量的80%),10個品種(9個進口產品)分到C組(基礎量為品首年採購需求量的50%),全部品種的基礎量對應採購金額為51億元。

③二代胰島素(限價均為50元/支),平均中標價格27.21元(3ml:300/支),相比於限價平均降幅為46%,其中最低價品種為17.89元/支——精蛋白人胰島素混合注射液(30R)(甘李藥業),降幅64%;

④三代餐時胰島素和其預混(限價為72元/支),平均中選價格為32.14元(3ml:300/支),平均降幅55%,其中最低價品種為18.89元/支——精蛋白鋅重組賴脯胰島素混合注射液(25R) (禮來),降幅74%;

⑤三代基礎胰島素(限價為132元/支),平均中選價格為70.44元(3ml:300/支),平均降幅47%,其中最低價品種為48.71元/支——甘精胰島素注射液(甘李藥業),降幅63%。

通化東寶、甘李藥業等國內胰島素企業中選結果較好,國產替代有望加速

1)通化東寶:本次共5個品規擬中選,相比於限價平均降幅41%,預計產品皆為同組B類,獲得基礎量為首年採購需求量的80%。具體而言,公司原有的核心品種通過B組中選可以較為合理的價格維持市場份額,甘精胰島素則有望通過較高的中標價格實現份額的提升。

2)甘李藥業:共6個品規擬中選,相比於限價平均降幅65%,4個進入同組A分類,2個品規進入B組。根據規則A組品種,將獲得100%基礎類,並有望獲得同組C類30%調出量的部分量。具體而言餐時胰島素類似物組C類為諾和諾德的門冬胰島素等兩個品種,30%分量近620萬支;預混胰島素類似物組C類為諾和諾德的門冬胰島素30注射液,其30%分量約1300萬支,甘李藥業作為兩組的A類有望分得較大份額。

3)其他重點企業:聯邦制藥共6個品規擬中標,基礎人胰島素類似物組獲得A2。億帆醫藥以低價策略獲得餐時人胰島素和基礎人胰島素兩組A1。

關注價格體系變化後的銷售影響

本次胰島素帶量採購後,國產和進口產品的價格體系被重新打亂,同類中選品種的價格體系亦有較大方差(部分產品價格相差超過100%),考慮到本次報量約佔到實際銷售量的50%左右,標外市場尚有相當大的空間,後續銷售終端的影響需要進一步觀察。

風險提示

政策執行不及預期,銷售推廣不及預期,競爭加劇風險。

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