大和:降華住集團(1179.HK)評級至跑贏大市 目標價至38港元
大和發表報吿表示,由於第三季業績,將華住集團(1179.HK)評級由“買入”降至“跑贏大市”;目標價由50港元降至38港元。
報吿指,相信最大的驚訝來自管理層突然對近期前景採取更保守語氣,並從“超大規模”戰略過渡到“精益增長”戰略。該行認為這種變化,源於管理層低估疫情在全球範圍內的持久影響,加上在過去幾個月內地多輪爆發的推動下,開始抑制加盟商開辦新酒店。雖然該行相信長期的增長仍然存在不變,但短期內其酒店網絡擴張步伐的放緩,特別是考慮恢復封鎖的一些國家,包括德國。
該行指,管理層解釋説,“精益增長”戰略意味着更加關注質量增長,包括重視客户滿意度及加盟商的盈利能力等,而不僅是酒店網絡的規模數量。該行認為,投資者不應將其過度解讀為酒店業務大幅放緩,由於公司2022及2023年的總開店目標為至少1500家,意味着每年淨開設約1000家酒店。管理層表示與上半年相比,因中國房地產市場疲軟進一步加劇,看到第三季放緩的跡象。
該行將2021-23年的非國際會計準則EBITDA削減19-26%,計入酒店擴張放緩和利潤率恢復;由於德國和歐洲其他地區的疫情病例捲土重來,還削減2021-23年華住的子公司德意志酒店的 EBITDA。

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