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瑞銀財富管理料明年環球通脹回落 農曆新年前內地或再降準
阿思達克 11-25 15:58
瑞銀財富管理投資總監辦公室亞太區投資總監及宏觀經濟主管胡一帆在記者會上表示,今年環球經濟在疫情中逐步復甦,需求上升但供應不足,造成能源市場等出現供應缺口。不過,隨着疫情進一步放緩,市場由商品需求轉向服務需求,將令通脹趨向緩和,估計明年全球通脹率約爲4%。她預期,美國高通脹將再持續一段時間,並於明年第二季見頂,其後開始回落及正常化。至於中國通脹料今年第四季仍處高位,但明年首季開始放緩回落。 經濟增長方面,胡一帆估計西方發達經濟體與中國明年的經濟走向會背離,相信英美等國陸續減少買債及退出量化寬鬆將令明年經濟表現呈前高後低。而中國因較早從疫情中恢復,經濟反而需要刺激,明年增長走勢料呈前低後高。 她預料,中國今年第四季經濟增長約爲4%,全年計在8%左右。由於國務院總理李克強早前稱經濟仍有挑戰,相信政府可能將有政策出臺,包括支持中小企信貸、增值稅免稅等,並有機會於明年農曆新年前再次降準。至於人民幣兌美元未來三至六個月估計會回軟至6.5至6.6水平。 資產市場方面,瑞銀繼續偏好股票多於債券。瑞銀財富管理投資總監辦公室大中華區股票主管李智穎看好歐洲及日本股市,以及美國中小型股及環球金融類股份,相信可受惠於各國政府投資帶動消費和服務。而亞洲市場則較看好5G供應鏈、新經濟、綠色科技及醫藥科技等塊板。(ek/u) ~
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