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《大行報告》高盛升長實評級至「買入」 新地及新世界降級至「中性」 調整地產股目標價
高盛發表研究報告指,自上一次更新以來,本港地產板塊面對壓力加劇。美國通脹增幅出乎預期,致加息預期升溫,同時內地房地產市場進入下行。綜觀本港及內地地產市場,該行留意到交投下滑。根據分析員對內地房價的看法,該行下調模型價格估算。高盛輕微上調未來兩年本港辦公室物業價格估算,同時大致維持零售及住宅價格預測不變。本港辦公室物業未來催化劑是市場期望已久的中港放寬出入境管制。相較該行預期,過去半年本港發展商業績大致平庸。再者,相較盈利更影響股價的每股分派,該行認爲亦遜預期。大部分本港發展商每股分派按年大致持平,惟長實集團(01113.HK)每股分派按年增21%令人印象深刻。 該行認爲本港地產股估值向下重評主因在於相較資產價值急升,資本回報相對低。該行維持板塊公允值由資產淨值及每股分派所構成的看法,維持在目標價估算中比例各佔五成。考慮本港農地價格上升,利率預期更新及發展商最新物業推售計劃,修訂所覆蓋本港地產股資產淨值,幅度介乎降4%至升17%,並調整目標價,幅度介乎降13%至升21%。詳見另表。 爲反映上述預測修訂,高盛上調長實集團投資評級由「中性」升至「買入」;新地(00016.HK)及新世界(00017.HK)評級由「買入」下調至「中性」;信置(00083.HK)評級由「買入」一舉下調至「沽售」;維持嘉裏建設(00683.HK)「買入」評級;維持恆地(00012.HK)「中性」評級。 因應利率預期,計入未來兩年本港將會加息的預測,該行修訂所覆蓋本港地產股2021至2023財年每股基本盈測,幅度介乎降7%至升17%。 高盛解釋,據其估算,在控制派息比率下歷史派息率計,長實集團提供最大上行空間,其次爲嘉裏建設。另一方面,信置提供的上行空間最小。該行留意到本港地產股股價與每股分派修訂有明顯關連性。這亦解釋了爲何本年至今長實集團及嘉裏建設股價跑贏,料勢頭將持續。在更廣義地產板塊,該行持續看好ESR(01821.HK)及新意網(01686.HK)。
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