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《大行報告》花旗料本港今年經濟增長6.6% 未來數年每年財赤少於200億元
阿思達克 11-18 16:08
花旗近期舉行多場投資者會議,並就本港通關展望方面,綜合與會者意見發表研究報告,料香港不會跟隨其他國家或地區採取「與病毒共存」的策略,將隨時調整政策以配合與內地通關,並加強措施防止本地疫情反彈。可以預期本港政府將在更多領域及場所強制使用「安心出行」,進一步收緊豁免檢疫安排,提供第三針加強劑,以及提高5至11歲兒童羣體及70歲以上長者的接種率。在通關準備過程及實行時,強制接種或與接種相關的先決條件也是可以預期。在通關安排上,倘本港或廣東疫情反彈,亦將設有「熔斷機制」。 花旗引述與會者指出,由於本港防疫措施完全配合內地防疫需要,料對國際訪客的防疫要求不會大幅度放寬,除非有新科技能縮短檢測變種病毒所需時間、本港有有效醫療新冠確診藥品,和疫苗接種率提升。 報告稱,旅業復甦是香港未來核心增長動力。除旅業外,香港經濟許多板塊已復甦至疫情前水平,政府日前公佈,8至10月最新失業率進一步跌至4.3%。首三季本地GDP增長達7%,整體增長動力持續至年底,有望錄5.5%至6.5%增長,花旗則預期增長6.6%。即使基數較高,該行料本港明年GDP增長達3.8%。 此外,花旗引述金管局指,內房板塊對本港銀行體系溢出風險有限,而銀行體系對本港樓市槓桿受限,未有放寬逆週期措施的暗示,金管局按樓市整體動力,一直靈活審視樓市宏觀審慎措施。 至於未來北部都會區計劃方面,報告稱,與會者料未來數個月將有更多詳細內容向公衆披露,相關融資安排料在下一份《財政預算案》公佈。該行亦從與者會確認北部都會區計劃已經過詳細討論,亦獲得深圳及中央政府支持。 報告又提到,與財政司司長陳茂波一致,財庫局許正宇料本財年財赤料遠少於原先估算的1,016億元,受惠土地收入創新高及經濟改善帶來財政收入高於預期。未來數年每年財赤亦料收窄至少於200億元,估計2025/26財年將可以回覆盈餘。
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