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《大行報告》高盛降明年內房行業銷量預測 偏好國企 下調世茂(00813.HK)評級至「中性」
高盛發表研究報告指,在內地政府進一步放寬政策措施後,重申對內房股的評級,認爲目前情況改善的可見性仍低。有別於以往週期,政府放寬速度變得溫和,且避免過份刺激,加上「三條紅線」、「兩條紅線」仍然是政府長遠政策方向,故此下調2022年市場展望,銷售預期由之前按年下跌5%,降至按年下跌15%;完工率亦由上升10%,下調至下跌5%,以反映較嚴謹的財政政策。一手市場的可見性低,可能達至較差的市場環境,整體預期明年下半年跌幅會收窄,持續改善空間有限。 該行降2021至23年內房發展商每股基礎盈利預測分別2%、8%、13%,並計入2024年預期(按年升2%),相信國企定位較好,不僅能夠生存,而且可以搶佔民企市場。招商蛇口(001979.SZ)評級升至「買入」,目標價由12.5元人民幣上調至14元人民幣;世茂集團(00813.HK)評級則下調至「中性」,目標價由21港元下調至13港元;首選華潤置地(01109.HK),目標價由39.7港元上調至45.8港元。
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