《大行報告》瑞銀料明年內地實際GDP增長5.4% 國債收益率或上升
瑞銀髮表研究報告,受流動性寬鬆及經濟轉弱推動,內地中央政府債券(CGB)收益率今年收窄約20點子。展望明年該行認爲有三大主題影響債市。
第一是經濟基本面的疲弱狀況將維持多久。該行料內地明年實際國內生產總值(GDP)升5.4%,首季增長料續疲弱,隨後GDP按年增長加快,明年下半年反彈至逾6%水平,主要受內需及基建投資驅動。2023年內地GDP增長料放緩至約5%。在整體信貸沒有重大增長的情況下,該行不認爲信貸需求會顯着擴大。
瑞銀表示,第二個主題是流動性會否收緊。在銀行存款增長放緩及更加依賴銀行同業拆借市場的情況下,該行料人行需要維持銀行融資成本低企,以支持信貸增長。在基本情境下,該行料明年七天期回購利率(DR007)維持於約2.2%水平。值得留意在明年下半年經濟增長逐漸加快的時候,人行會否調整其政策口徑。
第三是財政擴張會否增加供應壓力。瑞銀表示,考慮內地政府需要一定程度放寬財政政策以穩定經濟增長,料明年利率債淨髮行(中央政府國債、地方債、政策銀行債券)規模約9.4萬億元人民幣,較2021年輕微增加約6%。此外,53%的新供應將在上半年發行。需求端方面,該行料來自商業銀行及資產管理公司的需求穩定。瑞銀料今年外資流向債市資金約1,250億美元;隨着中國國債納入富時世界國債指數(WGBI),料明年外資流入中國債市規模約1,000億至1,250億美元。
即使流動性穩定及政策利率不變或部分抵銷上行壓力,瑞銀料在經濟反彈驅動下,明年國債收益率或上升。明年第三季十年期國債收益率或升至3.3%,明年底或回落至3%,因明年末季GDP按年增長或見頂及信貸增長轉弱。該行料明年利率債回報不及今年,而3至5年期債券回報或較其他品種爲高。中央政府債券與政策銀行債券的利差或溫和擴張,政策銀行債券未必較國債帶來更高回報。
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