《大行報告》中金展望恆指季檢 料農夫山泉等潛在「染藍」 估4股可納港股通
阿思達克 11-16 12:28
中金髮表恆指及港股通第三季度調整預測報告，恆生指數服務公司將於本週五(19日)收市後公佈恆生系列指數的三季度審議結果，其中包括恆指、國指、恆生科指等港股主要旗艦指數，以及港股通可投資範圍密切相關的恆生綜合指數的小部份調整。由於追蹤部份旗艦指數的被動資料規模大(據彭博資訊統計，追蹤恆指及國指的ETF資金規模分別爲211.2億及42.3億美元)，且恆指的系統優化正在途中，因此該行認爲潛在成份股變動，以及相應帶來資金流向的變化值得投資者關注。
該行料恆指或進一步擴容，關注部份新經濟龍頭，基於現在可得的交易量及換手率等數據及指數調整方法，特別是通過二季度調整結果對系統性優化後的編制方法的理解和驗證，該行測算京東集團(09618.HK)、網易(09999.HK)、百度(09888.HK)、快手(01024.HK)、京東健康(06618.HK)、思摩爾(06969.HK)、嗶哩嗶哩(09626.HK)、攜程集團(09961.HK)、翰森製藥(03692.HK)、農夫山泉(09633.HK)、萬國數據(09698.HK)及泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)，均排在恆生指數順位的前列，有可能成爲被納入的潛在候選者。
但該行說明，由於京東和網易等大市值公司按量化標準排名一直非常靠前，但過去幾次調整中卻均未有被納入，因此不排除是非量化因素所致。
潛在權重變化上，基於上述調整假設，若上述測算的股份被納入的話，由於指數設置8%權重上限，而美團(03690.HK)、騰訊(00700.HK)和阿裏巴巴(09988.HK)的權重分別爲9.24%、8.34%及8.08%，可能會因此被動小幅下調，進而帶來潛在被動資金流出。
中金指，據恆指公司3月發諮詢結果，恆指成份股將在2022年年中增加至80只，最終固定在100只，雖恆指公司沒有說明具體的實施路線圖，但一季成份股已增加3只至58只、第二季度續擴容至60只，因此此次調整大概率會進一步擴容。
此外，由於恆生綜合指數審議頻率爲半年度一次，故料此次不會發生系統性調整，粗略估算，此次可能有4只股份或可符合納入港股通的條件，分別是海倫司(09869.HK)、騰盛博藥-B(02137.HK)、醫脈通(02192.HK)和康諾亞-B(02162.HK)。
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