《大行報告》高盛上調香港銀行股目標價3-8% 籲買中銀(02388.HK)
高盛發表報告表示,美國通脹數據高出預期,令該行將美聯儲加息時間表預測提前至7月22日。該行指,一個月HIBOR跟隨聯邦基金利率有三個季度的滯後,在港元與美元掛鉤的情況下,市場迫使香港銀行系統排出多餘流動性,以更高的聯邦基金利率預測及銀行滯後計算,料2024年一個月HIBOR約爲1%,而銀行股現時股價領先12個月HIBOR/LIBOR約一個季度。
高盛表示,參考上個加息週期,當時中銀香港(02388.HK)及恆生銀行(00011.HK)等大型香港本地銀行淨息差(NIM)貝塔係數對HIBOR爲約0.2倍,即HIBOR每上升100個基點,淨息差即提升約20個基點。考慮到淨息差敏感度的影響,高盛將香港銀行2021至2023年每股盈利預測由下調2%調整爲上升3%,目標價上調約3%至8%。
高盛現在預計香港銀行業利潤表現將在2023至2024年恢復至2019年的水平,中銀香港及恆生的ROE至2023年將恢復10%以上,對中銀香港予以「買入」評,將目標價由32.4元上調至34.9元。
該行維持恆生「中性」評級,上調對其目標價由160元升至171元;該維持東亞銀行(00023.HK)「中性」評級,上調對其目標價由16.5元升至17元;該行維持大新銀行(02356.HK)「中性」評級,調高對其目標價由9.6元升至10.1元。
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