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瑞銀證券:明年滬深300指數每股盈利增速將放緩至8%
阿思達克 11-16 12:35
瑞銀證券表示,鑑於中國名義GDP增速放緩、非金融板塊利潤率小幅收窄,以及金融板塊盈利復甦,預計明年A股滬深300指數的每股盈利增速,將從今年的15%放緩至8%。 瑞銀證券A股策略分析師孟磊指出,展望明年全年,在盈利增長疊加估值微幅提升的推動下,預計市場約有10%的上行空間,對於未來三個月,考慮到信貸增速或小幅回升,以及政策寬鬆有望變得更爲明朗,對A股市場持建設性看法。 孟磊認爲,高品質成長消費板塊,有望因其盈利的穩定性和逐步復甦的基本面,而重回市場焦點,而與疫情相關的國內出行限制,或是最大的不確定性因素。他建議,投資者明年可關注進口替代加速、女性消費復甦、精選高股息率個股、以及國內家庭增加對股票的資產配置、以及北向資金的持續淨流入,預計明年北向資金淨流入達3,000億元人民幣。 孟磊指該行建議超配食品飲料、家用電器、休閒服務、汽車零部件、動力電池和可再生能源板塊,但低配基礎材料、煤炭、建築材料、傢俱、紡織、傳統傳媒以及房地產板塊。
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