《大行報告》瑞銀下調騰訊(00700.HK)目標價至600元 評級「買入」
瑞銀髮表報告,指由於廣告業的疲軟,騰訊(00700.HK)第三季收入及經調整息稅前利潤低預期2%,主因部分最近受到監管影響的行業是重要的廣告客戶,其他行業將無法在短期內彌補這一損失,預計至2022年下半年廣告業務纔有望改善。
然而,該行相信國內手遊的低谷已經過去,海外遊戲業務亦有正面因素,偏好其風險回報,因爲相信騰訊能在監管環境(2023年後)下實現約20%的盈利年複合增長率,維持其「買入」評級。該行上調騰訊今年度每股盈利預測2%,則降2022至2023年度各4%,目標價相應由630元下調至600元。
報告補充,相比起2018年,騰訊管理層對遊戲審批很快重啓的態度更爲正面。而即使沒有新的審批,該行相信對2022年上半年都不會有太大影響。該行將騰訊手遊收入預測降低2%至3%,以充分反映對未成年玩家的新規定,並將明年的廣告收入降低約10%,並預計騰訊將繼續其在關鍵戰略領域的投資,導致2022年出現3%至4%的息稅前利潤和盈利修正。該行目前預測,騰訊2021年和2022年手遊收入分別按年增長13.7%和17.8%,廣告收入分別增長12%和10.6%。
對於騰訊會否受到重大的監管影響,該行指,所有互聯網公司都將經歷監管收緊,但認爲騰訊的情況會比同行好。騰訊在網絡媒體和遊戲方面有多年的經驗,在推動用戶增長和用戶流量及數據貨幣化方面亦不太進取,因此雖然可能將需要一些調整,但到目前爲止,監管影響是可控。
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