《大行報告》高盛料中國明年經濟增長放慢至4.8%
高盛發表明年中國經濟長望報告,認爲中國將放寬宏觀政策或有利明年經濟增長,但今年加強對房地產等的結構性緊縮措施將大部分繼續保留,因此預計明年中國實際經濟增長爲4.8%,而2022至2025年每年平均增長只有4.5%,遠低於市場平均預測。
該行指,內地房地產引起金融危機的可能性較低,同時由於房地產市場已進入多年放緩增長階段,加上未來數十年對屋房的基本需求減弱,因此當局正採取行動推動行業去槓桿化,以避免日後出現無序調整的風險。
高盛估計2022至2025年房地產對經濟有一個百分點的負增長,同時新基建及綠色資本開支不足以彌補房地產投資減慢的缺口,加上傳統基建投資不太可能出現大幅反彈,因此整體而言投資對經濟增長的貢獻將會下降。(mn/W)~
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.