《大行報告》野村降內地明年經濟增長預測至4.3%
野村以「最壞時刻未到」爲題發表報告,爲內地明年增長提供初步展望。如9月報告所述,內地第三季經濟按年增長放緩至4.9%,末季或進一步放緩至3%,源於供應及需求面對衝擊。即使「電荒」消退及房地產調控微調,該行料內地經濟環境將進一步惡化,因現時「痛楚」仍未達到內地政府出手幹預的門檻。該行認爲,市場仍低估未來經濟及金融市場將要面對的痛楚。該行下調明年首兩季經濟增長預測,由分別3.4%及4.4%,下調至分別2.9%及3.8%;該行料內地將於第二季中段採更有力措施支持經濟。明年第三及第四季按年經濟增長料加快至各5.1%。該行料明年每季按季增長分別0.2%、2.1%、1.4%及1.3%。因此,該行下調明年內地經濟增長預測由4.8%降至4.3%。野村料內地政府明年經濟增長目標定於約5%可達至水平。
報告表示,9月底內地供應面衝擊完全浮現,面對多年來最嚴重「電荒」,主要源於煤炭短缺。需求面而言,該行料內地面對三大負面衝擊,即新一波疫情反彈/內地繼續「清零」政策;出口增長無可避免放緩;以及內地房市下跌。
野村表示,在9月能源荒過後,內地加快煤炭產出。中國每日煤炭產出接近年內高位。不過,「電荒」或在冬季需求增加時重臨,而明年2月冬奧或導致大批工廠暫時停產。
此外,由於內地持續「清零」政策,效益或隨時間消退,但痛苦則快速加劇,對明年經濟增長帶來下行壓力。爲應對潛在系統性風險,內地微調對房市調控,不過,大部分調控措施仍存在,監管機構態度仍十分「鷹派」,內銀仍維持審慎立場,《房產稅》也快將出臺。該行認爲,內地房市將進一步惡化,直至北京採更堅決措施,該行料將於明年春季出臺。此外,由於高基數,海外消費重心由耐用品轉至服務,耐用品需求自然下滑,人民幣強勢以及PPI通脹升溫,出口增長料將進一步放緩。
野村提到,相較以往緊縮週期,是次痛楚門檻更高,但仍然有可觸及的「臨界點」。該行料北京最快12月及明年1月大幅放寬貨幣政策,以及推出財政刺激,以應對下行壓力加劇。該行料下行壓力最壞階段將會是明年首季,屆時料觸及內地痛楚「臨界點」。爲提振出口,該行料內地將阻止人民幣升值,甚至容許一定程度的貶值。內地亦可能放寬部分房地產措施。不過,該行料內地仍保留「三條紅線」及「兩條紅線」等措施。在「清零」政策方面,該行料倘經濟形勢過於惡劣,將有一些溫和放寬,但這料屬最後手段。
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