農產品板塊走強，拐點機會來了嗎？
今日盤面板塊輪動比較快，上午綠色電力板塊高開衝高回落，午後市場走弱之際，農業種植板塊成為資金避險的新選擇。大豆，玉米，轉基因等農產品板塊紛紛迎來持續走高行情，基本上佔據了板塊漲幅榜前三。
從盤面上來看，輕指數重個股行情延續，局部賺錢效應仍然存在。
在近日， 在多數豬肉企業發佈10月經營數據呈現行業量價齊升新趨勢的利好，以及部分農產品漲價的刺激下，農產品相關板塊也持續受到了資金的關注。
牧原股份的10月份商品豬銷售均價11.88元/公斤，環比上升3.39%。10月公司銷售生豬525.8萬頭，銷售收入71.01億元。
根據豬易網數據，本週豬價持續反彈，11月6日生豬價格達17.47元/公斤，周環增7.8%，較10月初價格底部10.65元/公斤上漲約64%。按照歷史規律來看，年內季節性波動將帶來下半年需求的增加，預計豬價短期或震盪小幅反彈，或帶動部分區域零星補欄意願。豬企行業景氣度也會得到提升，那麼對於飼料農作物需求加大，將對原料價格保持高位運行形成有力支撐。不過中期來看，進入冬季疫病高發季節，仍需關注生豬冬季疾病流行情況，趨勢性反轉拐點仍需待產能去化情況而定。
同時，近期農作物價格不斷上漲也刺激了市場的情緒，一方面，2021年玉米制種基地受高温天氣影響顯著減產，預計行業整體或將提價 20%。另一方面，華北供不足，東北疫情及暴雪造成運輸困難加大。下游對農產品備貨量增加，需求量也會增加，進一步推動價格攀升。而且今年玉米、小麥和大豆麪臨同一個問題，那就是因為雨水增多而導致質量分化，短期對玉米，大豆等價格有較好支撐。
此外，近年來，種業發展受到政策支持力度明顯加大，《種子振興行動方案》的提出、《種子法》的修訂、國審稻/玉米品種審定標準的提高等有力措施落地後將極大優化種業經營環境，利好研發實力強勁的優質種企市場份額的持續擴大。此外，四季度為農業政策密集發佈期，板塊有望迎政策催化。
那麼接下來還能繼續上漲嗎？
雖然説疫情下全球供應鏈擾動等因素影響，大豆等油籽價格走高，種業行業迎來景氣週期。但是今年糧食行情大體還是延續了去年的走勢，整體的趨勢已經趨於緩和。隨着供給增加而需求端也不再那麼急迫，市場會漸漸地達到一個新的平衡。一旦市場數量增加，而需求端收購不積極，短期供應惡化局面將很快扭轉，價格將難以繼續上漲。
對於相關上市公司而言，從大部分的公司三季度業績報吿看，整體的業績表現並不是亮眼，而目前的農產品漲價確實會利好公司的利潤改善，但具體改善幅度能有多大空間，並不好測算，所以公司股價短期明顯上漲，仍需警惕後市股價波動風險。
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