花旗、高盛怎麼看油價?
儘管美國總統拜登將石油和天然氣價格飆升歸咎於OPEC+拒絕增產,OPEC+仍將堅持自己的立場,維持12月的適度增產計劃(下個月仍增產40萬桶/日),不理會石油消費國要求其加大增產力度以遏制油價飆升的呼聲。
在OPEC+宣佈下個月維持增產40萬桶/日的計劃不變後,一些分析師對石油市場的看法如下:
OPEC+上週表示,需求增長將非常緩慢。對此,花旗全球商品研究部主管Ed Morse稱,事實情況應該與之相反,即需求在上升,並表示明年包括美國在內的非OPEC產油國產量將意外大幅上升,增幅將比“任何其他OPEC國家”都要大。
高盛週四則稱,由於OPEC+與美國之間的公開分歧,預計未來幾周油價波動將加劇。此外,該行還稱,石油市場仍然供應不足,美國釋放戰略石油儲備可能只會暫時緩解壓力,明年甚至可能適得其反。
而能源諮詢公司Vanda Insights創始人Vandana Hari卻表示,由於布倫特原油價格已經從高位回落,因此石油消費者不太可能做出重大反應。Hari補充道,需求預計將繼續反彈,在OPEC+決定保持供應緊張後,庫存可能會大幅減少。
與此同時,紐約能源對衝基金Again Capital的創始合夥人John Kilduff在談到美國戰略石油儲備時表示,目前,OPEC+掌握着所有的籌碼,如果美國戰略儲備的供應得不到利用,油價將會進一步上漲。此外,Kilduff預計如果冬天來得早,油價將出現最糟糕的情況——漲至每桶100美元以上。
瑞銀策略師Giovanni Staunovo也表示,OPEC+的決定可能會促使美國釋放戰略石油儲備,儘管這隻會“在暫時的生產中斷期間填補缺口,而不會解決投資不足和需求上升等結構性問題”。此外,該行重申了對布倫特原油價格在未來幾個月將達到每桶90美元的預測。
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