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《季績前瞻》券商料友邦(01299.HK)第三季新業務價值按實質匯率計升逾6% 受疫情反覆影響(更新)
阿思達克 11-05 12:01
摩根士丹利、高盛及瑞信料友邦保險(01299.HK)將於11月12日(下周五)公布今年第三季新業務摘要,市場估計由於新冠疫情反覆,令內地訪客旅遊限制,而公司旗下東盟市場亦受疫情拖累,本網綜合7間券商預期友邦2021年第三季新業務價值(實質匯率(AER)計)介乎7.275億美元至7.98億美元,較2020年同期的7.06億元,按年上升3%至13%;中位數7.53億美元,按年升6.7%。 市場將關注友邦旗下內地業務的新業務價值表現,包括代理會否銷售更保障性品,以支持更高的新業務價值毛利率等。高盛指關注友邦在內地地區屬高毛利率的危疾保險產品需求,因從內險企業數據顯示相關需求疲弱、及留意公司在東盟地區業務復甦的步伐。 【疫情反覆拖累 新業務價值放緩】 高盛料友邦第三季新業務價值為7.49億美元(按實質匯率(AER)計按年升6%;按固定匯率(CER)按年升5%),主要受到季節性因素及疫情反覆所影響,該行料友邦今年首三季新業務價值按實質匯率計升21%,各市場增長正面,投資者將關心第四季業務趨勢及增長前景。 摩根大通發表報告指出,估計友邦今年第三季新業務價值為7.42億美元(按實質匯率計按年升5.1%),首年年化保費(AFYP)達14億美元按年升3%,料新業務價值毛利率53%(對比2021年第二季55.7%)。該行料友邦近期迎來三項挑戰,第一是集團在內地經營業務的一些省份面臨疫情反覆影響、第二是整體保險消費復甦較緩慢。由於公司的目標是在中產階級,預計下半年會面臨一定程度業務挑戰、第三是去年第三季業高基數和最近東盟國家因疫情封關因素。 ———————————————————————————————————— 本網綜合7間券商預期友邦2021年第三季新業務價值(實質匯率(AER)計)介乎7.275億美元至7.98億美元,較2020年同期的7.06億元,按年上升3%至13%;中位數7.53億美元,按年升6.7%。 券商│今年第三季新業務價值(實質匯率(AER)計)預測│按年變幅 摩根士丹利|7.98億美元|+13% 大和|7.695億美元|+9% 野村|7.695億美元|+9% 瑞信|7.53億美美元|+6.7% 高盛|7.49億美美元|+6% 摩根大通|7.42億美元|+5.1% 美銀證券|7.275億美元|+3% 按友邦去年第三季新業務價值7.06億美元計 (ta/w) ~
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