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惠譽:中國基建投資或企穩 緩解內房投資疲軟影響
阿思達克 11-03 16:44
評級機構惠譽預期,第四季中國基礎建設固定資產投資增長或將加快,有助緩解房地產開發企業投資疲軟所產生的影響。 惠譽表示,首三季房地產固定資產投資增速由上半年的14.7%回落至8.8%,預期合約銷售額下滑及不利於房地產開發商的信貸環境而將進一步拖累增長。同時,由於地區性限電措施將對能源密集型企業的產能利用率產生不利影響,制約了第四季製造業固定資產投資增長。 2021年第三季度,地方政府新增「專項債」發行提速,但由於新增專項債發行總額中投向棚戶區改造項目的比重加大,未能如預期般推動基建固定資產投資。惠譽預期,政府專項債於9月至11月集中發行,將有助於基礎設施固定資產投資增速及宏觀經濟增長在年底前企穩。 另外,需求上升加上產量受限令第三季水泥和鋼鐵等建築材料價格持續上升,創歷史新高,工程機械銷量則呈相反趨勢,因終端市場需求疲軟,繼2021年上半年的快速增長後於三季度開始銳減,房地產市場影響鋼材消費量增速有所放緩,預期建築業擴張勢頭已開始逐漸趨弱。
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