《大行報告》大和降小米(01810.HK)目標價至24元 評級「跑贏大市」
大和發表研究報告,下調對小米集團(01810.HK)2021至2022財年的智能手機出貨量預測,主要由於估計公司供應短缺持續,第三季預測收入按年增長10%至797億元人民幣,及經調整溢利按年增長15%至47億元人民幣。該行相信供應鏈問題及榮耀品牌的回歸,導致其股價自8月以來表現疲弱。基於供應鏈中斷為全行業問題,該行相信小米為獲得市場份額,將堅定執行其戰略,加快其2023財年的收入增長。
該行指出,供應短缺已開始影響小米的手機銷量,根據第三方數據,第三季小米智能手機出貨量為4,400萬部,按年跌6%,差過預期。該行估計小米第三季智能手機收入按年增長4%,至495億元人民幣,料其2021年智能手機出貨量約1.9億至1.95億部。基於晶片短缺情況或持續至2022財年下半年,估計部分新手機型號或押後於2022財年推出,因此料2022財年小米智能手機出貨量為2.1億部。該行又料供應短缺將導致更高的毛利率,另相信小米全球市場份額持續增長。
該行對小米的2021至2023財年收入預測下調2至4%,重申「跑贏大市」評級,目標價由28元降至24元,另對小米2022至2023財年的智能手機出貨量較市場預期的更為保守。
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