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《大行報告》大摩降九龍倉置業(01997.HK)評級至「減持」 目標價下調至38元
阿思達克 11-01 10:29
摩根士丹利發表報告指,九龍倉置業(01997.HK)股價過去一個月累升約17%,跑贏恆指同期約7%升幅,而現價相當於預測今年股息收益率3.3%。 大摩相信,市場正反映中港復關的可能性上升,甚至有機會早於明年2月的北京冬季奧運會前,但該行認爲不太可能。再者,本港零售銷售未見加快,今年8月本港的零售銷售僅按年增長12%,消費券的影響較該行預期爲小。由於沒有遊客,奢侈品銷售仍較2018年8月曆史高峯低出58%。 報告稱,九龍倉置業市盈率歷史上與本港零售銷售按年增長有高度關連,因該行不預期首八個月零售銷售按年8%增幅在未來數個月可以加快,認爲九龍倉置業缺乏催化劑,其相當於預測市盈率17倍的估值料難以進一步上升。如果仍不通關,明年上半年本港零售銷售按年增長或放緩至僅2%。 此外,報告稱,九龍倉置業上半年零售租金收入較2019年上半年低出35%,屬收租股中最差,主因續租租金明顯下跌,以及商場空置率上升。該行料今年上半年零售租金尚未見底,明年租金收入仍較2019年水平低出三成。另該行稱,其辦公室展望仍疲弱。上半年佔用率由去年底的85%進一步跌至82%。尖沙咀租戶受疫情嚴重打擊;另九龍東的競爭亦激烈。 大摩將九龍倉置業股份評級由「與大市同步」降至「減持」,目標價由41元降下調至38元,以反映下調估值基礎,資產淨值目標折讓由35%擴至40%,主因旅客復甦較預期慢。
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