一文了解券商於國壽(02628.HK)公布季績後最新評級、目標價及觀點
中國人壽(02628.HK)今日股價受壓,盤中曾低見13.38元一度下挫4.4%。摩根士丹利表示,國壽今年第三季新業務價值如預期按年下跌,如同業般走勢,但季度淨利潤跌幅亦達55%,拖累其今年首三季淨利潤僅按年升3%,維持對其「與大市同步」投資評級及目標價14元。
國壽昨(28日)收市後公布今年首三季業績。淨利潤485.02億元人民幣按年升3%。每股收益1.72元人民幣,營業收入7,277.11億元人民幣按年增長5%。首三季公司實現保費收入5,534.37億元人民幣,按年增長2%;新業務價值按年跌19.6%。退保率為0.93%,與去年同期相比基本保持穩定。公司實現總投資收益1,656.95億元人民幣,按年增長13%,總投資收益率5.25%;淨投資收益1,392.03億元人民幣,按年增長13.4%,淨投資收益率4.4%。
國壽今年第三季淨利潤75.27億元人民幣,按年倒退55%。每股收益0.27元人民幣。營業收入1,751.1億元人民幣,按年跌2%。
【季度盈利跌五成 新業務價值下滑】
花旗表示若撇除純利表現計,國壽今年第三季業績大致符合預期,期內新業務價值按年跌20%(對比今年上半年跌19%)大致維持穩定,第三季淨利潤按年跌55%,主要投資收益減少及錄較高保單準備金,令表現低於市場預期。摩根大通指中資保險股壽險業務面臨挑戰,國壽旗下保險代理今年以來下跌29%至9.8萬人,料重整相關業務仍是主要挑戰。
瑞銀指,國壽首三季新業務價值按年跌20%,意味第三季跌幅為21%,勝該行預期,相信下跌原因主要仍是經紀數目減少及市場競爭激烈,料有關負面因素將於近期維持。該行料國壽10月底至11月開售「開門紅」產品,惟在高基數影響下,料不會錄得大幅增長。該行上調對國壽2021年新業務價值預測,預計跌幅自早前的25%收窄至21%,上調國壽目標價,自15.5元上調至16元,維持「買入」評級。
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本網最新綜合7間券商對其投資評級及目標價:
券商│投資評級│目標價
花旗│買入│22元
野村│買入│22.48元->20.95元
瑞信│跑贏大市│20元
大和│買入│16元
瑞銀│買入│15.5元->16元
摩根大通│中性│15元
摩根士丹利│與大市同步│14元
券商│觀點
花旗│季績大致符預期,投資收入減少影響盈利略遜預期
野村│淨利潤及新業務價值表現疲弱
瑞信│新業務價值符預期,稅後淨利上軌道
大和│季度新業務價值及經紀數目減幅收窄
瑞銀│產品多元化為潛在長期策略
摩根大通│下調全年盈利預測15%,反映第三季度業績
摩根士丹利│盈利及新業務價值均下跌
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