資管巨頭Janus Henderson警告：明年市場將面臨更大的通脹考驗
駿利亨德森投資公司(Janus Henderson Investors)的多資產團隊主管Paul O'Connor表示，威脅全球風險資產的供應鏈危機並不算什麼，真正的考驗將在明年到來，屆時服務業的繁榮將推高勞動力成本，並迫使各國央行更果斷地收緊政策。
O'Connor表示，隨着各經濟體在2022年開放，消費者對服務業需求的回升，將使美國和其他地區本已十分緊張的勞動力市場更加吃緊。這意味着，即便當前商品通脹瓶頸緩解，能給市場帶來的任何喘息，都將只是暫時的。而目前看到的商品瓶頸只是明年重大事件的彩排，明年將是服務業繁榮，以及隨之而來的所有相關定價和政策壓力，這可能會給央行帶來更多麻煩。
因此，O'Connor在其投資組合中繼續減持政府債券和投資級債券，且對股市持中立態度，並表示即使有強勁的增長預期，如果服務業推動利率重新定價，可能會對股市造成“連帶損傷”。
持續通脹的威脅仍然是投資者的熱門話題，從方舟投資的凱西•伍德、特斯拉的馬斯克，再到美國前財長Larry Summers，所有人本週都在討論這個話題。儘管部分人贊同美聯儲的觀點，認爲物價上漲將是暫時的，但也有越來愈多的交易員正提前押注加息。
此外，通脹預期還對債券市場造成衝擊，據悉，Bloomberg Global Aggregate Total Return Index今年下跌了4%以上。儘管股市目前保持堅挺，但MSCI ACWI全球指數略低於歷史高點。
O'Connor表示，風險在於，在未來某個時點，通脹壓力會變得十分明顯，並迫使央行更果斷地收緊政策，這對風險資產來說是個更大問題。“全球範圍內的利率重新定價尚未完成，”O'Connor表示，“當前瓶頸已將央行推入貨幣緊縮的第一階段，隨着明年服務業復甦，央行在貨幣緊縮方面可能會面臨更大的壓力。”
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