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《大行報告》花旗:內地規管煤價料扭轉升勢 將中煤(01898.HK)剔出第四季首選股 喜好水泥板塊
花旗發表研究報告,引述內媒指國家發改委對動力煤實施價格管制。計及運輸及其他成本,整體港口價格應少於每噸800元人民幣。這價格指令將在國務院批準後生效,直至2022年5月1日止。倘獲批,新政策將改變現貨煤價格走勢,該行原先預期將於明年1月至2月見頂。這短期將影響投資情緒。該行將中煤(01898.HK)剔出第四季首選股之列。煤價下降料利好下遊行業如能源、水泥及鋁等。水泥板塊仍是末季及明年上半年喜好板塊,行業首選中建材(03323.HK)、海螺水泥(00914.HK)及潤泥(01313.HK)。 報告稱,如果內地政府決心實施價格管制,政策會確實落地。但該行稱,在供應鏈上不同生產區域有多個成本考慮,煤價不會立即由每噸2,000元人民幣跌至800元人民幣,不過該行稱,現貨煤價下跌趨勢已經成形。 花旗補充,原先於2017年訂立的北方港口發熱量5500kcal/kg動力煤年度合約價格爲每噸535元人民幣,現限價於每噸800元人民幣,意味政府容許明年所訂年度合約價格輕微上升,這對大型煤企如中煤及神華(01088.HK)料屬潛在正面。 此外,報告表示,價格限制意味交易商進口煤炭無利可圖,因此對煤炭進口料有負面影響。該行料今年12月及明年1月,月度煤需求料達4億噸,隨着新產能投入,料至今年12月本地生產升至3.6億噸。9月煤淨進口3,300萬噸,隨着本地實施限價,邁向冬季將面臨風險。該行料今年12月及明年1月內地每月煤炭供應缺口介乎1,000萬至2,000萬噸。報告料,冬季政府將對製造業有更多能源調控出臺,壓抑鋼鐵及有色金屬行業能源需求。該行料明年內地煤炭需求增長將放緩,供應增長將跑贏需求,致使現貨煤價下降。
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