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《大行報告》大摩料明年首季內地煤供應將紓緩 降行業看法至「審慎」 下調潤電(00836.HK)評級至「與大市同步」
摩根士丹利發表研究報告,認爲內地「電荒」及煤供應緊張屬人爲控制結果,受雙控(對碳排放及對高能源耗用)及地方政府對煤礦安全檢查所引致。這與內地能源需求創過去十年新高契合,加劇了煤碳及能源供需關係緊張。展望未來,除受雙控致高能耗行業需求放緩外,該行亦留意虛擬貨幣「挖礦」對能源消耗的影響。以基本情境估算,該行料內地明年能源政策措施將回復常態。 報告稱,邁向明年首季,料煤供應將紓緩。該行調查顯示自7月起,新批準煤碳年產能達2億至3.58億噸,料僅足以填補本年至今供應缺口。隨着冬季頂峯逼近,料煤價將持續上升,直至明年首季。儘管大幅上調2021至2023年盈測,該行維持對中煤(01898.HK)及兗煤(01171.HK)「減持」評級,主因煤價降溫政策風險上升、煤礦商實現煤價令人失望以及股價跑贏大市已反映利好因素。考慮定價壓力,該行對內地煤碳行業看法由「與大市持平」(In-Line)降至「審慎」。該行對內地煤電股投資評級及目標價見另表。 該行下調潤電(00836.HK)評級由「增持」降至「與大市同步」;對華能(00902.HK)評級由「與大市同步」降至「減持」,指除非煤價自現水平大幅回落,否則未來數季料錄顯着虧損。潛在電價上升短期亦不足以彌補成本通脹。市場正預期電價大幅上升以及上網電價機制重大修訂,將致火電企業帶來估值重評,該行認爲政府首要目標是支持火電廠渡過現時難關,以及保證電力供應,而不是協調後者恢復盈利。長遠而言,料更市場化的定價機制可利好火電企業,在煤價高企時減少經營損失。在內地能源產能供應過剩下,煤電價格長遠趨勢料傾向下行。 大摩稱,中國就減碳邁向更機構化及更有協調,透過綠色投資優先,避免運動性減產能,以及更依賴市場機制。該行假設在現時供需關係緊張下供應溫和理順,但「電荒」最差環境料已過去。該行料「電荒」對今年末季及明年國內生產總值(GDP)帶來20至30點子的影響,主要由高耗能行業帶動。通脹而言,即使基數較高,短期生產者價格指數(PPI)料高企於約11%,但由於傳導能力有限,料對消費物價指數(CPI)影響相對溫和。
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