《大行報告》中金:房產稅試點短期或壓制市場預期 內房股何時築底須關注信貸端調節力度
中金髮表報告表示,第十三屆人大常委會於上週六(23日)舉行第三十一次會議作出決定,授權國務院在部分地區開展房地產稅改革試點工作,該行認爲內地房地產稅是政策必選項,有利於房地產行業長期平穩健康發展。這不僅是構建中國房地產實體資產持有環節稅收制度的核心要素,更是推進和深化中國財稅體系改革的重要制度性設計。
該行認爲當前時點人大常委會的授權,充分展現了中央層面推進房地產市場長效機制的堅定決心與積極態度,也是共同富裕的應有之意。故推進房地產稅應屬情理之中、預期之內,料實操層面應當是相機的、差異化的、循序漸進的。
該行指房地產稅試點短期可能壓制市場各方預期,但有利於引導中長期供需再平衡。該行提示房地產稅試點可能觸發房價在一定程度上的調整預期,「房住不炒」觀念進一步強化,這將在大幅壓低投資性購房需求的同時,促進擁有多套房產的居民家庭釋出閒置住房。雖然短期內可能增加應對當前樓市疲弱、投資乏力問題的複雜性,但在中長期而言,則既有助於在大城市新房庫存整體偏低且明年新房供給潛力偏弱的情況下改善供需狀況,也有利於穩定房價預期。
展望後市,中金判斷內房股銷售、投資等基本面指標短期仍將延續下行趨勢,何時築底回升須重點關注信貸端政策的調節力度。
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