美股財報能否繼續亮眼？
摩根大通(JPM.US)、美國銀行(BAC.US)、富國銀行(WFC.US)、花旗集團(C.US)均已公佈了2021年第三季度度財務業績;四大行收入同比變化分別爲1%、12%、-2%、-1%，淨利潤分別同比增長25%、64%、65%、48%，均超市場預期，主要得益於息差企穩、信貸需求回暖、投行及股票交易強勁、撥備持續回撥。
中金認爲，美國四大行估值截至目前已基本恢復至疫情前水平，一方面是由於持續的業績改善，另一方面，流動性寬鬆推升風險資產價格。根據FactSet一致預期，2019、2020、2021E、2022E JPM的ROE分別爲15%、11%、18%、14%，BAC分別爲11%、7%、12%、10%。
其中，10月21日，美國銀行盤內創歷史新高達46.83美元，收盤迴吐部分漲幅達46.83美元，收跌0.55%。
同日，摩根大通股價盤內接近歷史記錄171.51美元，高達171.32美元，收盤迴吐部分漲幅達169.5美元，收跌0.78%。
展望未來，中金錶示持續關注美國疫情、經濟復甦、貨幣政策、資本市場表現等驅動因素，預計QE減量和加息升溫下，銀行股價更多受業績推動。
美國四大行Q3業績超市場預期
中金認爲美國四大行三季度業績超市場預期主要得益於：淨利息收入環比改善;隨着經濟復甦，居民消費意願增強、對公貸款需求回暖，3Q21貸款環比增速回升，息差環比企穩。非息收入強勁;流動性寬鬆使得資本市場高度活躍，投行與股票交易收入高增長，財富資管客戶AUM快速擴大。撥備回撥;銀行對經濟展望樂觀、淨覈銷率持續下降，3Q再次減少撥備。
美國四大行業績能否繼續亮眼?
中金認爲，2022年四大行淨利潤增速可能較2021年的高基數下降，而營收增速尤其是淨利息收入增速或加快。
主要原因包括：1)經濟復甦、QE減量、加息預期升溫有望改善銀行的信貸需求和息差。2)近期資本市場有所降溫可能導致投行業務收入環比略回落。3)四大行撥備覆蓋率已基本降至疫情前水平，撥備將在2022年逐步正常化。
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