《大行報告》摩通:市場已預期房產稅消息出臺 料內房將再度反彈 物管股潛在上行達20%
摩根大通發表研究報告,指自9月中旬低位以來,內房跑贏恆指同期表現17%,該行料全國人大通過擴大房產稅試點將帶來短期弱勢。不過,該行認爲市場已預期此發生,內房弱勢料屬短暫。未來一個月憧憬在更多信貸放寬的消息出臺下,料內房將再度反彈。在發展商之間,該行建議在低位收集中國海外(00688.HK)、潤地(01109.HK)以及龍湖(00960.HK)。以市場關連度來說,建議留意落後股旭輝(00884.HK)及寶龍地產(01238.HK)。以捕捉上行勢頭而言,該行仍偏好物管股,過去一至兩個月走勢與內房相似,但由於較少板塊雜音,料升勢更具持續性,料未來兩至三個月上行空間約20%。該行偏好碧桂園服務(06098.HK)、華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)、旭輝永升服務(01995.HK)以及世茂服務(00873.HK),詳細投資評級及目標價見另表。
報告稱,由於房產稅先導計劃爲時五年,料全國立法及執行將押後至2026年之後,市場現時有更清晰時間表;現時稅項設計仍未有細節。細節或因應不同城市有所差異,但該行料首階段原則將與上海及重慶市相若,即漸進推行,瞄準多重產權及高端物業。該行料少於10%家庭需要支付房產稅。房產稅率料少於1.2%(有效料0.3%至0.5%)。不過,報告稱,在試點進行期間,稅務負擔或逐漸擴大。而房產稅推行將不會導致資產收縮。在新城市的推行料最快明年進行,今年底或有更多細節出臺。報告稱,房產稅或致試點城市樓市短期轉弱,但不會有長期影響,如在上海及重慶市,供需關係比房產稅有更大角色。
此外,該行稱,不認爲延長房產稅先導計劃與近期內地政府對樓市正面信號互相沖突。即使不認爲內地房市迎來重大寬鬆措施,但該行料未來數個月輕微寬鬆將持續。據貝殼找房數據,10月90大城市平均首套房按揭利率按月降1點子至5.73%,下行趨勢在末季餘下時間料持續。這料支持內房銷售跌幅由9月的按年跌29%收窄至10月的按年跌10%至20%。即使銷售逐漸改善,該行料末季銷售按年倒退,因高基數、土地市場疲弱,以及輕微寬鬆在刺激市場情緒上有滯後。
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