《大行報告》花旗料房產稅試點或增至十個城市 內房基本面持續改善
全國人大常委會星期六(23日)授權國務院起草房地產稅試點辦法,由試點地區政府制定具體細則,試點期限爲5年。花旗發表報告指,試點推行早過預期,不過推行全國實施的時間較預期遲,有可能將試點由目前的2個城市增加至10個,試點或在今年12月或明年1月推行,預計全國實施不會在試點期限最後一年之前推行,預計試點不會造成破壞性影響。該行認爲,明年內房行業前景較今年健康,首選穩健的內房股,包括龍湖(00960.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、旭輝控股(00884.HK)、新城發展(01030.HK)、寶龍地產(01238.HK)和龍光(03380.HK),目標價分別是52.1元、42元、7.8元、11.6元、8.88元和16.1元,評級「買入」。
花旗認爲,房地產稅試點是移除不明朗因素,目前內房股股價已經反映了第四季銷售下跌,波動減少以及回購等均有利內房股估值。花旗表示,以稅率爲估值0.5%計算,在沒有豁免的情況下,估計每年可以徵收1.8萬億元人民幣房產稅(相當於去年土地銷售額的21%)。花旗認爲,徵收該稅旨在擴闊稅基,另外非住宅租賃物業一向須被徵稅,因此沒有因房地稅試點有變化。
花旗說,當局在沒有很多詳情的情況下推行房地產稅試點,顯示政策迫切性,有可能是因爲人民銀行和銀保監早前對房地產融資的正面措施,以及在主要城市明年房屋供應潛在急降。該行認爲,房地產稅試點對首置者購買新屋需求影響有限,在試點範圍內城市新屋的投資需求或會流入鄰近區域。
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