《大行報告》摩通:市場已測試內險股估值底部 續看好平安H股及財險
摩根大通發表研究報告,指內地壽險板塊本年至今表現,致使該行保守預期落空,摩通原預期疫情後壽險銷售復甦,列中國平安(02318.HK)作為跑贏大市的首選。本年至今股價反映除中國財險(02328.HK)外,其他予「增持」的壽險股均跑輸大市,特別是平安A/H股。至季績期,該行下調今明兩年新業務價值增長預測,今年由按年跌3%下調至跌12%,明年由按年升14%下調至升12%,反映保險銷售復甦緩慢。艱難的一年過後,已測試壽險股估值底部,該行續看好平安H股及財險。在第三及第四季業績披露更多與房地產相關數據後,該行或考慮對其他壽險股看法轉至正面,但現時不會追逐其他股票。
報告稱,邁向年底,喜好平安H股,因本年至今累計回調34%,反映市場在高度悲觀情境下對平安的估值底部。對財險而言,最少風險資產敞口及潛在汽車保費復甦將是催化劑。該行料財險盈利及派息風險較小。對其他壽險股來說,估值吸引,特別是H股。不過,就房地產投資披露有限,以及投資利差帶來的現金流,或帶來不確定性。因此,明年3月公布今年全年業績後,才再重新部署投資壽險股,或有更佳風險回報。該行並上調部分內險股H股目標價,詳見另表。
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