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《大行報告》摩通:內地煤短缺最壞情況已過 降神華(01088.HK)及兗煤(01171.HK)評級至「減持」
摩根大通發表研究報告,指內地煤價今年極度波動,早前該行已預警在今年特別炎熱的夏天下,煤價將失控,但相信現時內地煤短缺最壞情況已過去,最重要轉變是政府正加緊本地煤生產量;今年末季及以後需求正常化,亦有幫助。該行料新煤炭產出11月將投入市場,煤炭產出增長將加快至按年升5%。 自國家發改委宣布限制煤價上限為每噸1,800元人民幣後,內地動力煤期貨價格三日累跌約30%。這嚴格限制與需求急降同時發生,因內地天氣自夏季後開始轉涼。短期而言,該行料內地火電廠煤炭庫存很快回復正常,因需求呈季節性下降。該行料煤價將正常化至早前低於每噸900元人民幣水平,較市場同業相對看淡。該行料煤價下降動力將觸發煤股在9月跑贏大市後向下估值重評。摩通降神華(01088.HK)H股評級由「增持」一舉下調至「減持」,目標價由23元降至15元;摩通另降兗煤(01171.HK)H股評級由「中性」下調至「減持」,目標價由12元降至10元。
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