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《大行報告》瑞銀:融創(01918.HK)風險回報冠絕內房 升至板塊首選
阿思達克 10-22 15:37
瑞銀發表研究報告,指融創中國(01918.HK)在該行所覆蓋內房股中風險回報最佳。現估值相當於預測市賬率0.4倍及預測市盈率2.2倍,意味市場已計入一定程度的違約風險。倘違約風險紓緩,融創多重正常化將帶來重大上行空間。該行的現金流及表外債務分析顯示,即使9月銷售疲弱(按年跌33%),融創現時可以產生正自由現金流;其實在再融資比現金流更重點,在國務院副總理劉鶴近期指內房板塊合理資本需求正被滿足下,再融資情況正在改善。該行將融創升至板塊首選,評級「買入」,目標價25元。 報告稱,按融創2014至2020年現金流往績估算,瑞銀料融創表外債務約2,000億元人民幣,相對其表內債務3,040億元人民幣(當中910億元人民幣屬短債)。該行假設所有表外債務是短債,即總短期債務約2,920億元人民幣。截至今年6月底,融創有1,010億元人民幣不受限制現金。如果35%償權人要求融創立即償還債務,融創在沒有新融資渠道下,亦有能力支付。按劉鶴近期對房企融資的言論看,瑞銀料35%償權人要求融創立即償還債務發生機會甚低。
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