瑞銀:內地零售見底回升,看好白酒及乳業第三季業績
投行瑞銀19日發表報吿稱,中國內地零售銷售9月已見底回升,主要受惠於內地旅遊限制放鬆,但復甦步伐仍然緩慢;該行預期即將公佈的第三季業績,白酒及乳業股可看高一線,而小型家電、傢俱及運動用品股的表現將延續疲弱。
報吿預期,民生消費股份第三季營收增長將較第二季加快,主要受中秋節、國慶長假期前渠道補充庫存帶動,預期白酒股份第三季業績增長最為強勁。當中山西汾酒因產品組合的提升帶動毛利率增長,其業績料優於市場預期,但水井坊及瀘州老窖因其營業費用率高於預期,業績則可能遜市場預期。
瑞銀表示,內地白酒股早前下挫,由於投資者擔心白酒行業的消費税率可能提高。但該行認為,即使税率提高,對高端白酒公司的盈利影響有限,因增加的税率可被消費者所吸收。“股王”貴州茅台因其高於同行的渠道利潤,使其能處於有利地位。
大眾消費品股份方面,報吿料伊利第三季業績可能優於預期,因原奶價格的成本壓力緩解;青島啤酒雖然銷量下滑,但由於產品組合持續提升加上公司於7月上調售價,因此料淨利仍温和增長。
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