《大行報告》高盛降中通(02057.HK)評級至「中性」 調整快遞股目標價
高盛發表研究報告指,今年下半年等待良久的電商包裹定價拐點終於發生,受內地政府關注推動行業健康發展,引入定價下限及市佔上限;隨着包裹量增長放緩及政府更加關注郵務員社會福利,快遞公司需專注服務質素及產品差異化,以提升定價覆蓋額外成本。該行相信這將利好二、三線快遞商(如韻達(002120.SZ)及圓通(600233.SH),通常處於收支平衡),多於已經維持盈利的一線快遞商,如中通快遞(02057.HK)。
該行上調圓通評級至「買入」;並下調中通評級至「中性」,因其已跑贏其他ADR電商。該行認爲圓通有重大估值重評空間,收窄與中通及韻達的估值折讓。該行維持順豐(002352.SZ)及京東物流(02618.HK)的「買入」評級,看好其滿足客戶需求能力、數據分析需求及其他增值服務,以及有利行業發展的政策。
考慮到包裹物流股次財季業績,電商包裹量趨勢及銷售均價,調整所覆蓋股價收入預測,由降13%至升45%不等,並較大程度調整2021至2023年盈測。
該行料貨運代理行業增長續強勁,受惠航運費率上升、貨船運力樽頸及主要港口擠塞帶來的延誤。不過,運力樽頸逐漸緩解,該行料自2022年下半年起,盈利能力料將放緩。高盛並調整包裹物流股目標價,詳細投資評級及目標價見另表。
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