《大行報告》高盛不預期內地今年餘下時間會再降準
高盛發表研究報告指,人行於上週五舉行記者會,交代第三季資金及信貸情況,並回應了市場關心的房地產信貸,以及第四季貨幣政策的傾向。人行確認會放寬房地產信貸,以及維持流動性穩定,並繼續透過中期借貸便利(MLF)和公開市場操作(OMO)調控流動性。
該行指,上述的迴應確認了早前政府將放寬房地產借貸以確保行業穩定的報道,但壓制發展商借貸的大方向不變,故相信未來金融機構仍會限制對發展商的貸款,特別是信貸情況較差的企業。
該行又指,9月份,內地房貸增長加速,惟新增人民幣借貸意外地放慢。近期反貪措施可能進一步拖慢整體信貸增長。此外,國家主席習近平近日在《求是》中撰文提到要進一步推動房地產稅立法和改革,該行料明年會有個別城市開始試點,但整體立法需時。
在通脹方面,人行預期PPI在今年第四季以及明年增長溫和,CPI增長維持在目標區間。該行調低人行今年降準可能性,在基礎情況下,預期內地今年餘下時間不會再降準。
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