《大行報告》大摩:內房股可能對政策寬鬆作出反應 重申吸引看法
摩根士丹利發表報告,指上周五(15日),人行就第三季金融統計數據舉行新聞發布會。涉及與房地產行業相關的主要信息包括,人行預計在房價穩定後抵押貸款將恢復正常;一些金融機構對開發商的去槓桿化反應過度,暫停了一些開發貸款的再融資。人行在9月底與主要銀行舉行會議,敦促它們維持開發商的正常再融資,支持穩定和健康的房地產市場。
至於恆大(03333.HK)方面,人行認為對金融系統的溢出效應是可控的,並指恆大只是個別案例,大多數開發商都在穩定營運,房地產行業整體是健康的。
大摩日前將內房行業觀點提升至「吸引」,並重申吸引看法,認為違約風險和房地產市場的疲軟已經在很大程度上被市場反映,內房股對政策放鬆作出反應的可能性變得更大,重申保利發展(600048.SH)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、龍湖(00960.HK)和融創(01918.HK)為行業首選。
大摩指出,考慮到融創不斷改善的資產負債表、在高端城市強大的資產流動性,以及估值吸引,預計融創將在政策寬鬆的趨勢下跑贏。
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