瑞銀張寧:料第三季內地GDP增長放緩至5% 未來雙控政策或微調
中國將於下週一(18日)公佈9月份和第三季經濟數據,瑞銀投資銀行高級中國經濟學家張寧估計,9月份內地工業生產按年增速可能明顯減速至2.5%;社會消費品零售按年增速或反彈至4.8%;房地產活動可能繼續疲弱。至於9月固定資產投資按年增速可能小幅升至2至3%,而出口按年增速可能小幅放緩。
張寧又預期,9月份中國居民消費價格指數(CPI)按年增速可能小幅上行至1.1%,採購經理人指數(PPI)增速進一步躍升至10.5%;整體信貸增速可能進一步放緩,但預計9月或10月見底;外匯儲備規模或下降100億美元;第三季國內生產總值(GDP)按年實際增速可能放緩至5%左右。
此外,張寧指目前對第四季GDP按年增速4%和全年GDP增速8.2%的預測面臨較大下行風險。目前來看,政府無意大幅調整雙控政策,但該行預計未來雙控政策會有所微調,包括暫時小幅放鬆雙控政策的執行力度,避免用能用電出現嚴重短缺等。
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