收購Five9失敗後,Zoom前景如何?
9月底,Zoom(ZM.US) 宣佈終止147 億美元收購智能雲聯絡中心提供商Five9(FIVN.US)的交易。在此之前,Zoom的股價已經經歷了一段疲軟時期。
收購Five9失敗後,Zoom繼續走低。目前,Zoom的股價較歷史高點下跌了約40%。

Zoom在疫情期間實現了爆發式增長,但隨着人們重返學校和辦公室,其增長勢頭開始放緩。在後疫情時代,Zoom還值得投資者關注嗎?
爲什麼要收購Five9?
從數據上看,Zoom收購Five9能夠大大增強其業務實力。
在不計入自動化總潛在市場(TAM)的情況下,收購Five9能夠使Zoom的TAM增加到至少860億美元。

合併後的公司將成爲一個更全面的全渠道參與平臺,有助於加速業務增長。

然而,合併交易並不順利。Zoom在7月中旬宣佈合併消息時,其股票溢價遠遠高於Five9。但由於近期Zoom的股票表現不佳,這種溢價優勢幾乎消失了。

由於溢價較低,加上對Zoom增長的擔憂,Five9股東沒有通過與Zoom合併的協議。
收購失敗後,Zoom發展前景如何?
不過,在沒有Five9的情況下,Zoom的業績也表現強勁,在過去三年裏營收以三位數的年複合增長率增長。

收購失敗後,隨着經濟重新開放,Zoom將如何發展?
研究服務公司Best Of Breed分析師Julian Lin預計,Zoom增長將大幅放緩,因爲未來的增長模式不太可能與過去類似。不過,Zoom仍是視頻會議領域的領導者,這種市場地位有望使它繼續以健康的速度增長。
Lin認爲,Zoom未來的增長將來自三大支柱。首先,第三方很容易在外部應用程序中集成使用Zoom視頻會議工具。
其次,其客戶端集成了一系列第三方應用程序,用戶可以在會議過程中直接使用這些程序。
最後,Zoom未來的部分增長將來自Zoom Rooms和Zoom Phone等產品,目前這些產品的滲透率非常低。
值不值得買入?
華爾街普遍預期Zoom的營收在未來10年將以兩位數增長。

Lin將Zoom的評級從“中性”上調至“買入”。該分析師認爲,Zoom擁有健康的現金流,最近一個季度,其調整後的淨利潤率爲28%。無論疫情何時結束,視頻會議的需求都將繼續存在,Zoom有望從這一長期增長的行業中獲利。Lin表示,Zoom並不是最便宜的科技股,儘管它從歷史高點急劇下跌。 不過,鑑於它所處行業的長期增長趨勢和較低的風險,該股有望提供令人滿意的回報。
Stifel分析師J. Parker Lane將Zoom的目標股價從350美元下調至300美元,並維持“持有”評級。Lane 對該公司核心業務前景充滿信心。Lane表示,從功能的角度來看,Zoom 仍然是視訊會議領域的佼佼者,明顯領先於微軟 (MSFT.US) 的 Teams、思科 (CSCO.US) 的 Webex,以及 Verizon (VZ.US) 的 BlueJeans 等競爭對手。
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