西部證券：明年消費企穩的需求邏輯
來源：靜觀金融
關於消費：我們逐漸看到供給週期、政策預期與需求支持三條線索
1）產能週期與供給邏輯下2022年有望出現豬油共振，權益市場也會將注意力由上遊原材料轉向大衆消費品。
2）十四五期間中國轉型方向是「消費大國疊加製造大國」。在轉型預期下，未來1-2年促消費、保中下遊行業利潤等相關政策有望逐步落地。
3）多家國內外藥企在新冠肺炎特效藥方面有了研發突破，明年中低收入羣體收入將受提振進而拉動大衆消費需求。
消費場景約束及中低收入羣體邊際消費意願下降是消費疲軟的主因
1）疫情令2020年中低收入行業從業者受損嚴重。去年疫情對不同行業工資性收入的影響存在極大的結構性影響，低收入行業受衝擊最大。其中，住宿餐飲、水利環境、居民服務三個行業出現平均工資負增長，租賃和商務服務業、交運倉儲、文娛、衛生出現極低的個位數增長。此外，直至今年Q2農村外出務工人員數量仍未恢復至疫前高點水平，其收入增速亦仍明顯低於疫前。
2）疫情加劇貧富分化。疫情約束了諸多消費場景令中高收入羣體被動儲蓄。線下消費行業營業收入大幅縮水進而出現企業裁員和降薪，疫情又降低了部分中低收入羣體跨省獲得更高收入的機會。總體來說，疫情主要打擊中低收入羣體並大概率加劇貧富分化。
3）消費場景約束及中低收入羣體邊際消費意願下降是社零增速等消費指標疲軟的主因。疫後中高收入羣體沒有足夠的消費場景是社零疲軟的主因之一。疫情暴發以及多次反彈增加了中低收入羣體的就業與收入的不確定性，約束了該羣體的消費能力和消費意願，這或許纔是今年大衆消費品需求不足的關鍵。
明年消費回暖概率不低：存在場景約束類消費與大衆消費受益
邏輯上，特效藥問世有望化解疫後的結構性問題，明年或有三種消費情景：
1）特效藥問世，疫後存在場景約束的消費與大衆消費受益。2022年的疫後場景可能會變爲「特效藥全面問世全面扭轉疫情的結構性矛盾」。一旦如此，2022年仍受疫情約束的部分場景消費以及日常的大衆消費品有望出現報復性修復。
2）特效藥問世疫後結構性問題難以快速扭轉，明年消費溫和企穩。不能否認很多消費習慣一旦養成難以快速扭轉，因此特效藥雖能解除消費場景約束，但疫後結構性問題並不會快速、全面扭轉。明年疫後存在場景約束的消費與大衆消費需求雖有望企穩回升，但彈性有限。
3）特效藥未能實質性扭轉疫後矛盾，促消費政策落地概率加大。若明年特效藥問世仍不能消除疫情對消費的結構性約束，穩增長預期和力度就有望明顯加大。在該情景下，政策着力點或爲提振中低收入羣體收入及大衆消費。疫後存在場景約束的消費改善或有限，最爲受益的當屬日常大衆消費。
風險提示
國內經濟基本面超預期；新冠肺炎特效藥效果不及預期；國內穩增長政策不及預期。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
