Q3財報季拉開帷幕！華爾街預計FAAMG業績要下滑
美股第三季度財報季將於下週拉開帷幕，而大型科技巨頭的業績將是決定美股接下來走向的關鍵因素。然而華爾街近期一直在削減對大型科技股的預期，如谷歌(GOOG.US)、亞馬遜(AMZN.US)，並且沒有提高對蘋果(AAPL.US)、微軟(MSFT.US)或Facebook(FB.US)的估值。
市場普遍認爲FAAMG在Q3亮眼的業績能夠把陷入低迷的美股重新拉回上漲曲線，其中一個重要原因是FAAMG在標普500指數中的權重佔比高達22%，具體來說，這一權重相當於把標普500中工業、日用消費品、能源、房地產、材料和公共事業板塊的所有成分股佔比加起來的總和(佔標普500指數約24%)。
華爾街最新預期
在過去兩個月裏，華爾街大幅下調亞馬遜Q3收益預期，Facebook Q3收益預期有所上升，而谷歌、蘋果和微軟的收益預期基本保持不變。以下爲華爾街最新每股收益預期：
蘋果:預期每股收益1.23美元，過去60天上調0.01美元，與過去30天持平
微軟:預期每股收益2.07美元，過去60天上調0.01美元，與過去30天持平
谷歌:預期每股收益23.40美元，過去60天上調0.07美元，但過去30天下調0.08美元
亞馬遜:預期每股收益8.92美元，過去60天下調4.02美元，過去30天下調0.09美元
Facebook:預期每股收益3.17美元，過去60天上調0.22美元，與過去30天持平
對比二季度
值得注意的是，以上最新的預期都低於這些公司在2021年第二季度的業績。另外，華爾街分析師們預計，標普500指數第三季度的總體每股收益(每股49美元)將低於第二季度的實際每股收益(每股53美元)。
有金融媒體認爲在週期性復甦，大宗商品價格飆升的浪潮中，週期股的業績或將表現出色，接力FAAMG成爲市場焦點。知名財經博客網站Zerohedge評論道：“在週期性板塊的支撐下，標普500指數從9月初的高點僅下跌約4%。預計市場波動至少會持續到超過一半的標普500指數成分股公佈最新業績(即本月底)。”
FAAMG第三季度每股收益預期對比二季度：
蘋果每股1.23美元的預期低於上季度 1.30美元的實際每股收益。
微軟每股2.07美元的預期低於上季度 2.17美元的實際每股收益。
谷歌每股23.40美元的預期明顯低於上季度 27.26美元的實際每股收益。
亞馬遜每股8.92美元的預期遠低於上季度 15.21美元的實際每股收益。這一數字下降了41%，但考慮到公司面臨的增量成本，這個數字或許是合理的預測。
Facebook每股3.17美元的預期也遠低於上季度 3.61美元實際值。
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