《大行報告》花旗看淡安踏(02020.HK) 推薦李寧(02331.HK)及滔搏(06110.HK)
花旗發表研究報告指出,儘管長期看好中國體品股,但認爲市場低估內地品牌改變的市場動態,預測今年第三季銷售數據表現疲弱,主要由於行業渠道庫存上升、季度零售折扣較大、棉花價格上漲、新疆棉事件影響消退,以及Nike與Adidas可能透過對中國零售合作夥伴的補貼或支持,以恢復內地市場份額。該行推薦李寧(02331.HK)及滔搏(06110.HK),認爲李寧一貫審慎的控制渠道庫存及更強的品牌資產,相信其影響應少於內地同行,至於滔搏可受惠於國際品牌更正面的市場動態,惟該行看淡安踏(02020.HK)。
該行指出,安踏受9個負面因素打壓,包括基於第三季零售銷售疲弱影響及市場削減其盈利預測,或下調今年下半年前景展望;棉花成本高企壓抑利潤率;Fila週期性放緩帶來結構性估值向下重評;營運資金壓力下融資需求上升;新疆棉事件影響消退;由於東南亞供應鏈幹擾,Amer或錯過今年第四季的銷售旺季;李寧納入恆指成分股後,安踏不再是唯一一隻體品股獲納入恆指成分股;安踏可換股債持有人在股價回調下通過沽空增加對衝活動;以及港股通南向通投資者持股減少。
該行維持對安踏的「沽售」評級,目標價由59元增至71.3元;維持對李寧的「買入」評級,目標價由100.5元增至103.4元;維持對滔搏「買入」評級,目標價維持16.26元。
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