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《大行報告》摩通:美團(03690.HK)罰款符市場預期 料可消除投資者的股票負面情緒
阿思達克 10-11 10:24
摩根大通發表報告表示,就中國市場監管總局上周五(8日)公布,依法對美團(03690.HK)在中國境內網絡餐飲外賣平台服務市場實施「二選一」壟斷行為作出行政處罰,責令美團停止違法行為,並處以其2020年中國境內銷售額3%的罰款涉34.42億人民幣,指此大致符合市場預期,料消除投資者的股票負面情緒的因素。 該行指,內地對美團的罰款符合投資者的預期,因為大多數投資者預計會受到與阿里巴巴(09988.HK)案類似的處罰。因此,該行認為,該公告消除了股票情緒的懸念,而並非意外驚喜。也就是說,摩通預料美團股價將在未來幾個交易日內有積極反應。 摩通認為,上述罰款及結果對美團的市場份額影響微不足道,以及今年下半年外賣業務表現鞏固,預計對未來競爭定位的影響不大。上述處罰結果顯示,美團自2018年開始對餐飲商家實施強制排他性,但美團的外賣市場份額從2018年的67.3%增加到2020年的70.7%,僅增長3.4個百分點,同期訂單量市場份額從62.4%增加到68.5%,增長6.1個百分點。該行認為,獨家商家關係並不是美團過去幾年市場份額增長的唯一原因,因此認為強制排他性帶來的市場份額收益微不足道。 該行料美團可能會在未來幾個季度加速推出騎手社會保障福利計劃。一旦美團公布首批社保福利計劃的政策,投資者應該能夠量化對平台利潤率和單位經濟效益的財務影響。根據目前的監管要求,估計向美團所有全職騎手推出社保福利計劃將導致每筆訂單的增量成本低於0.5元人民幣。該行維持美團「增持」評級及目標價300元。
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